Newsletter for games through 7-23-2017

SCORE THAT AN ERROR: Paulino was listed on the waiver wire but should not have been; he landed himself on the PED suspension list, so he’s simply unavailable to all…Dennis Madsen noted that my attempt to say that we had a “full week” was actually typed as a “feel week,” and he was kind enough not to point out that it was no doubt a Freudian way of describing my bullpen…

I KNOW I’M A LITTLE DEFENSIVE ABOUT THIS, BUT: Look, defense matters.  A lot.  And of all the areas of baseball stats, it’s measured the worst.  Errors are NOT the most important thing, are poorly defined anyway (what’s “ordinary effort”?), and while they don’t really measure range (or they might, in a reverse way — more errors might actually mean better range), more range is not, by itself, really a measure of good defense either.  How much range do you need from your catcher?  Or pitcher?  Or first baseman?  Or even third baseman?  And we just covered 4 of 9 spots on the field.  Thus, I will share with you my observations on defense, based on data from the first half of this season.

Observation #1: You know what doesn’t really matter?  Errors.  They explain 0.2% (that’s 1/5th of 1 percent) of runs, and 0 (that’s zero) percent of wins.  Fielding percentage, which derives from errors, explains all of 0.4% of each.

Observation #2: You know what does matter?  Batting average on balls in play.  That explains 13.2% of runs and a more modest 0.8% of wins, but both numbers are way better than errors.

Observation #3: Catchers matter.  Passed balls and wild pitches explain 1-2% of runs, but caught stealing percent explains 4.4%.  Add all that up and it’s about 10% of the runs your team allows that can be attributed to the catcher.   And that doesn’t really include calling the game, framing the pitches, handling the pitcher freak outs, directing infield traffic, fielding bunts, blocking the plate, etc.  That 10% figure is no doubt lower than the collective pitching effort, but unlike pitchers the catcher is out there every day.  Your best pitcher takes runs off the board every 5th day; a good catcher does it every single night.  Only MLB team ever to win a World Series with a rookie catcher?  The Giants, and that rookie was Buster Posey.

What does this have to do with the ASFBL?  Very little.  I’m mostly ranting.  But I do put some time into figuring out the defensive side of things…although as with all things quantitative, there’s more guesswork than anyone would like with low sample sizes.

SO ABOUT THIS WEEK: Rockies ran the table with the only perfect record in the NL…Braves had the best record in the East…Cubs had only wining record in the central…Yankees went 6-1 to move back into first, but both the Bosox and Orioles also had winning records… Detroit picked up a half game to move into a dead tie with Cleveland, and the Royals also gained ground…Oakland went 4-2 for the best record in the AL West, and they also have the only positive WOR in the division….Philly and Cincinnati are dueling it out atop the WOR standings…where you will also find the DBacks, , who lead their division by 7…Houston has the biggest divisional lead, although the Nationals could claim that title soon…Nats also have the best record in the league, with the DBacks breathing down their necks…

FEATS AND FAILURES:

Addison Russell of CHC hit 3 home runs against ATL on 7/17/2017
Addison Russell of CHC had 6 RBI against ATL on 7/17/2017
Gerardo Parra of COL had 5 hits against SDP on 7/17/2017
Mark Reynolds of COL had 6 RBI against SDP on 7/17/2017
Mark Reynolds of COL had 5 hits against SDP on 7/17/2017
Matt Adams of SFG had 6 RBI against CLE on 7/17/2017
Matthew Joyce of OAK had 6 RBI against TBR on 7/18/2017
Clayton Kershaw of LAD had 10 strikeouts against CWS on 7/18/2017
Max Scherzer of WAS had 10 strikeouts against LAA on 7/19/2017
Mallex Smith of TBR struck out 4 times against OAK on 7/19/2017
Nate Karns of KCR had 10 strikeouts against DET on 7/19/2017
PHI and MIA played 14.5 innings on 7/19/2017
Corey Kluber of COL had 13 strikeouts against SDP on 7/19/2017
Robbie Ray of ARI had 10 strikeouts against CIN on 7/20/2017
Brandon Drury of ARI struck out 4 times against CIN on 7/20/2017
Mike Moustakas of KCR hit 3 home runs against DET on 7/20/2017
Matt Holliday of NYY struck out 4 times against SEA on 7/21/2017
Pat Valaika of COL had 7 RBI against PIT on 7/21/2017
Melky Cabrera of CWS had 5 hits against KCR on 7/22/2017
Drew Pomeranz of BOS had 11 strikeouts against LAA on 7/22/2017

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Newsletter for games through 7-19-2017

RANDOM: This sentence appeared in the Los Angeles Times on July 15: “Miami — Sent third baseman Miguel Rojas to Jupiter for a rehab assignment” … will he even be alive when he gets back?

COMMENTARY: Five teams had 3-0 records…including both the Dodgers and the Padres…Washington and Houston were the only division leaders to do it…DRays were the 5th, and they’re looking to right the ship after a tough first half…Cleveland is in first and +1 WOR, and could be feeling more comfortable were not the Tigers and Chisox both +6.5 WOR…you are about to read the most startling sentence ever written in this newsletter, a comment so eye-catching and improbable that it needs no exclamation mark to highlight it’s significance…the ASFBL fantasy team ERA leader is Colorado…hats off to you, Mr. Leckie…Washington is .01 behind them…Houston and Boston are separated by .16 in the American League, and curiously Boston has the fewest saves of any team in the top 10…Anaheim (that’s the club definitively south-west of Los Angeles for the geographically confused) has the bullpen that has allowed the fewest percentage of inherited runners to score at 13%…Arizona has allowed only 11 inherited runners to score all year…that’s about 1 in every 8 games…but they’ve inherited roughly 40 fewer runners than the Angel bullpen…the top-3 fantasy ERA teams all have between 233-241 walks allowed, and then it jumps to 320 (Dodgers)…Boston still has struck out the most opponents…Houston is a tick below the actual club, but leads the ASFBL in runs scored…Washington and Milwaukee both have more than 100 net hit saving plays (hits saved minus errors and difficult plays not made) , and both are in first place…Cardinals have 99…real Dodger ERA is 2.90…that’s scary…they’ve also hit 146 homers, which is second only to Houston…Cleveland is in first place but their actual team ERA ranks 28th…defense ranks 1st…plenty of chance for those fielders to rob hits…second half should start to shape up next week with the first full week of play…

FEATS AND FAILURES:

Jake Arrieta of CHC had 10 strikeouts against BAL on 7/14/2017
Jacob deGrom of NYM had 11 strikeouts against COL on 7/14/2017
Luis Severino of NYY had 12 strikeouts against BOS on 7/14/2017
Jimmy Nelson of MIL had 10 strikeouts against PHI on 7/15/2017
Chris Sale of BOS had 14 strikeouts against NYY on 7/15/2017
Nomar Mazara of TEX hit for the cycle against KCR on 7/15/2017
Trevor Cahill of SDP had 12 strikeouts against SFG on 7/15/2017
Marcell Ozuna of MIA struck out 4 times against LAD on 7/15/2017
Luis Castillo of CIN had 13 strikeouts against WAS on 7/15/2017
Jose Quintana of CWS had 11 strikeouts against SEA on 7/15/2017
Salvador Perez of KCR had 6 RBI against TEX on 7/16/2017
Eric Thames of MIL hit 3 home runs against PHI on 7/16/2017
Alex Wood of LAD had 10 strikeouts against MIA on 7/16/2017
Mike Clevinger of CLE had 12 strikeouts against OAK on 7/16/2017

 

Newsletter for games through 7-12-17

RANDOM: I’ll give 2 extra free waivers to any owner who has a selfie taken of themselves and Joe West while on the All-Star field…If the 3 days without actual games is resulting in physical discomfort, you might visit http://baseballholics.libsyn.com/ … it will add to the addiction, not cure it, but it might get you through Wednesday…

COMMENTARY: Colorado charged forward with the only 7-0 week…Miami matched the National’s 6-1 record in the East as the Mets collapsed…Philly put up a winning week and moved into first place in the WOR…Pittsburgh was tops in the NL central at 5-2 but the Brewers held to first with a 3-3 record as the Reds cooled off…Dodgers were also 4-2, but the DBacks don’t look too nervous with their 9-game lead…Baltimore moved back into first place by picking up 2.5 games on the Yanks, and Boston is holding stead with another winning week…Detroit moved into first place in the AL central by picking up 1.5 games on Cleveland and benefitting from some tough luck experienced by the Sox…Seattle had the only winning record in the West…Scherzer is the only 14-game winner in the ASFBL going into the break…Gio Gonzalez also has 11, and they are the only 2 teammates who have double-digit wins…Raisel Iglesias is killing the ASFBL in saves with 32, and nobody else has more than 20…he’s got 16 in real-life but his ERA is only 1.69…just goes to show that “save” is a team stat…can’t save any games if you’re team doesn’t have a lead going into the last inning…which brings to mind Anthony Young, who passed away last week…I remember watching him set the all-time MLB consecutive loss record…can’t set that record without the help of your teammates…and you gotta be pretty good to keep getting the ball..Kershaw and Smardzja are tied for the fewest walks per inning…Jose Ramirez and Nick Wittgren are tied with CSUF alum Mike Lorenzen by stranding 15 baserunners without allowing one to score…top 3 save leaders are all in the NL central, by the way…Aaron Judge has 98 RBI….holy crap….Nolan Arenado has 40 doubles….Baltimore scored exactly 8 runs in all 3 games against Milwaukee this week…

FEATS AND FAILURES:

Brent Suter of BOS had 10 strikeouts against TEX on 7/3/2017
Jameson Taillon of PIT had 11 strikeouts against PHI on 7/4/2017
Bruce Maxwell of OAK had 5 hits against CWS on 7/4/2017
Ryon Healy of OAK had 6 RBI against CWS on 7/4/2017
Alex Wood of LAD had 10 strikeouts against ARI on 7/5/2017
George Springer of CLE hit 3 home runs against SDP on 7/5/2017
George Springer of CLE had 6 RBI against SDP on 7/5/2017
Nicholas Castellanos of WAS had 5 hits against NYM on 7/5/2017
Luis Castillo of CIN had 13 strikeouts against COL on 7/6/2017
Martin Maldonado of LAA struck out 4 times against TEX on 7/7/2017
Aaron Nola of PHI had 12 strikeouts against SDP on 7/7/2017
Hunter Renfroe of SDP struck out 4 times against PHI on 7/7/2017
Cory Spangenberg of SDP struck out 4 times against PHI on 7/7/2017
Willson Contreras of CHC had 8 RBI against PIT on 7/8/2017
Eric Hosmer of KCR had 5 hits against LAD on 7/8/2017
Austin Barnes of LAD had 6 hits against KCR on 7/8/2017
Chris Taylor of LAD struck out 4 times against KCR on 7/8/2017
Cody Bellinger of LAD struck out 4 times against KCR on 7/8/2017
KCR and LAD played 16.5 innings on 7/8/2017
Felix Hernandez of SEA had 13 strikeouts against OAK on 7/8/2017
Madison Younginer of BAL had 11 strikeouts against MIN on 7/8/2017
George Springer of CLE struck out 4 times against DET on 7/8/2017
Keon Broxton of MIL robbed 3 hits against NYY on 7/8/2017
Andrew Knapp of PHI struck out 4 times against SDP on 7/9/2017
Brian Dozier of MIN struck out 5 times against BAL on 7/9/2017
HOU and TOR played 13.5 innings on 7/9/2017

 

Newsletter for games through 7-2-17

COMMENTARY:  Ralph Malveaux’s Reds and their +11.5 WOR moved to with .5 games of the Brewers in the NL central…the gains seems largely to be made on the strength of two trades made on April 17….I think Ralph has low-level psychic powers….27 lineups turned in last week!  Thanks! Makes my life easier, and shows the league is healthy….Rick Wynne’s DBacks ran the table for the only perfect week in the ASFBL last week..my playlist for his karaoke next week: “We are the Champions,” and “It’s hard to be humble” … I’m going to lobby for a raising of the retirement age in North Carolina…The Dodgers are starting to flex their muscle, and as the actual team keeps improving there’s no reason Chuck Ballingall’s crew won’t…10 AL teams were stuck between 3 and 4 wins last week…New York and Boston were the big gainers with 5…Rob Perkins’ Chisox picked up a game on Steve Skrovan and the Indians to move into first by half a game…Texas had the best week in the AL West, and Houston remains the class of the AL…by the way, Jim Casey’s Astros were one the Reds’ early-season trading partners…according to Leo’s list, Jim is the 5th most active trader in the league…the Leckie family (Leo and Ben) account for 35 trades, more than Texas, St. Louis, San Francisco, Minnesota, Miami, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Boston, New York Mets, Cincinnati, Anaheim, and Cleveland combined…that first Cincinnati/Houston trade involved CSUF product Michael Lorenzen…who is one of 71 former Titans who made it in MLB, including the player who will never, ever be bumped from his #1 standing in the alphabetical rankings, Don Aase…both Pill’s (Tyler and Brent) are CSUF products who have both played for the ASFBL Mets, both by accident…Lorenzen graduated from Fullerton Union High School, which is the alma mater of Walter Johnson….who graduated just a century earlier…

FEATS AND FAILURES:

Martin Maldonado of LAA struck out 4 times against LAD on 6/27/2017
Jose Bautista of HOU struck out 4 times against OAK on 6/27/2017
Carlos Martinez of STL had 11 strikeouts against ARI on 6/27/2017
Stephen Vogt of OAK struck out 4 times against HOU on 6/28/2017
Ryan Rua of TEX struck out 4 times against CLE on 6/28/2017
Max Scherzer of WAS had 11 strikeouts against CHC on 6/28/2017
Miguel Sano of MIN struck out 4 times against BOS on 6/28/2017
Zack Greinke of ARI had 11 strikeouts against STL on 6/28/2017
Jacob deGrom of NYM had 10 strikeouts against MIA on 6/29/2017
Jordan Montgomery of NYY had 10 strikeouts against CWS on 6/29/2017
Jose Peraza of CIN robbed 3 hits against MIL on 6/29/2017
Lucas Duda of NYM struck out 4 times against PHI on 6/30/2017
Dinelson Lamet of SDP had 11 strikeouts against LAD on 6/30/2017
Corey Kluber of COL had 14 strikeouts against ARI on 6/30/2017
David Peralta of ARI struck out 5 times against COL on 6/30/2017
COL and ARI played 15.5 innings on 6/30/2017
Sean Newcomb of ATL had 15 strikeouts against OAK on 6/30/2017
Trevor Bauer of CLE had 12 strikeouts against DET on 6/30/2017
Michael Taylor of DET struck out 4 times against CLE on 6/30/2017
SFG and PIT played 14.5 innings on 7/1/2017
Anthony Rendon of DET had 6 RBI against CLE on 7/1/2017
Aaron Altherr of PHI struck out 4 times against NYM on 7/1/2017
Yu Darvish of TEX had 10 strikeouts against CWS on 7/1/2017
Ivan Nova of COL had 10 strikeouts against ARI on 7/2/2017
COL and ARI played 17.5 innings on 7/2/2017
Rhiner Cruz of ATL had 10 strikeouts against OAK on 7/2/2017